3 models fit Apple Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver68
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionApple Inc. Common Stock (AAPL)
Fair value (3 models)
$163
ACCE price target
$322
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $170 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $296 since 17 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $348 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
113.7% above
-53.2% to fair value
ACCE score
71
out of 100
Analysts
57% buy
44 covering
P/E
39.4x
forward 35.2x
1-year return
+34.0%
Dividend yield
0.31%
Apple Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Apple designs and sells the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch and AirPods, and increasingly earns from services such as the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music and payments, all tied to an installed base of hundreds of millions of active devices. Its moat rests on an integrated hardware, software and retail ecosystem that keeps users in place and supports pricing power, which is visible in a 48.7% gross margin and a 32.6% operating margin. Revenue growth of 16.4% is strong for a company this size, and the next leg of growth depends on the iPhone upgrade cycle and the gradual shift toward higher-margin services revenue. At a trailing P/E of 39.1 and a forward P/E of 35.2, the stock is priced for continued execution, so the question is whether that 16.4% growth can persist at scale. The ROE of 148.8% is inflated by heavy buybacks that shrink book equity, so it overstates the underlying economics and deserves a closer look before it is used as evidence of quality.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation disconnect from model
Forward P/E 35.1 and EV/EBITDA 29.7 are elevated relative to historical norms for the sector.
high
Sequential revenue collapse
QoQ revenue declined 22.7% despite YoY growth of 16.4%, signaling sharp seasonal or demand deceleration in the most recent quarter.
moderate
Insider selling concentration
Last 10 disclosed transactions show $89.38M in sales against $0.00M in buys. Absence of insider accumulation at current valuations is a neutral-to-negative signal.
moderate
Long-term growth stalled
5-year revenue CAGR of 1.8% indicates the company has matured significantly. Near-term earnings growth (28.7% YoY) may not be sustainable.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Apple's 16.4% year-over-year revenue growth and 27.6% net margin show the core business is accelerating while maintaining fortress profitability.
A 148.8% return on equity and 53.3% return on invested capital demonstrate Apple deploys capital with exceptional efficiency.
Free cash flow of 107.7 billion dollars and a 2.6% reduction in share count fund buybacks while strengthening the balance sheet.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value sits 46.6% below the current share price of 336.64 dollars, suggesting significant downside risk.
The stock's valuation implies 8.9% perpetual cash flow growth, but the 5-year average revenue growth was only 1.8% per year.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 2, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where AAPL's valuation models land
Price
$347.73
Model fair value
$163
Model range
$97.63 to $262
Fair value $163
Price $348
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores