Market cap ¥1.66TNext earnings 2026-11-11Updated Oct 24, 2026 · valuation updating
Our verdict
No fair value
We are missing the financial data our models need for this company. It will appear once the data arrives.
Not valued: there are no financial statements on file yet.
ACCE opinionHikari Tsushin, Inc. (9435.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥42143
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥37760 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
65
out of 100
P/E
11.0x
forward 16.9x
1-year return
-12.8%
Dividend yield
2.10%
Hikari Tsushin, Inc. in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Hikari Tsushin runs a bundled portfolio of Japanese retail and wholesale businesses, most visibly the Hikari Tsushin Co. telecom and Hikari Tsushin's network-related and real estate holdings, though its core economics come from its telecom-linked and consumer finance franchises. Its moat rests on a 48.7% gross margin and a 15.2% operating margin, both of which point to pricing power in a niche that most competitors cannot replicate at this scale. Revenue grew 15.2%, which is well ahead of what most Japanese conglomerates manage, and that growth is the near-term driver to test: is it volume, acquisition-led, or pricing? The stock looks inexpensive on trailing earnings at 11.1x against a forward multiple of 17.1x, the forward figure implying that analysts expect earnings to fall or flatten, which is the first thing to reconcile before any deeper work. With a 14.5% ROE and a 1.68T JPY market cap, the question for the PM is whether the margin structure is durable or a cyclical peak.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative free cash flow
FCF is reported at $-75,210,252,288 despite net margin of +21.0% and earnings growth of +30.7%. Reported earnings are not converting to cash, which needs explaining before sizing a position.
moderate
Heavy insider ownership
Insiders hold +58.3% of shares, so a small float and concentrated control sit alongside a 17.4x EV/EBITDA multiple. Float-driven price moves are possible.
moderate
Weak revenue trend
Five-year revenue CAGR is +4.5% and QoQ growth is +0.1%, well below the +15.2% YoY figure. Recent growth may be lumpy rather than steady.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-23 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 15.2% year over year, well above the company's 4.5% average annual pace over five years.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 44460.00 sits 16.5% above the current share price.
Latest earnings beat expectations by 50.3%, with earnings per share of 837.15 against 557.10 expected.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -JPY 75.2B, so the business consumed cash rather than generating it.
Debt to equity of 0.86 leaves the balance sheet more leveraged, which matters while cash flow is negative.
The share trades at 10.4% below the ACCE price target of ¥42143.00, which some would see as a sign the market doubts the earnings.
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