Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, Inc. (8309.T) fair value
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · TSE · Japan
¥1600.00-1.45%
Market cap ¥4.41TNext earnings 2026-11-13Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 143% above our fair value
Price
¥1600.00
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
¥659
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
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Valued as a bank: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionSumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, Inc. (8309.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥1584
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥1600 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
83
out of 100
P/E
12.3x
forward 4.3x
1-year return
+54.4%
Dividend yield
2.93%
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, Inc. in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group runs Japan's trust banking franchise, which means custody and asset administration for pension and institutional clients, real estate and stock transfer agency, and a lending book that sits alongside a large fee-earning business. The structural case rests on that mix: fee income from asset administration and trust services is steadier than pure net interest income, and Japan's long-running shift toward corporate governance reform and household investment in equities supports demand for exactly those services. The near-term driver is the rise in Japanese interest rates, which lifts the margin on the lending and deposit book after years of compression, and a reported revenue growth rate of 27.3% suggests the earnings base is already moving. The stock screens at 12.5x trailing earnings but only 4.4x forward, a gap wide enough that the market is either doubting the earnings trajectory or the forward estimates are stale, and that question is worth a deeper look. The return on equity of 10.8% is respectable rather than exceptional, so the case depends on whether the earnings step-up holds up through the next reporting cycles.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Revenue trend contradicts growth
Revenue is up 27.3% year over year, but the 5-year revenue CAGR is -22.1%. The strong recent figure may not reflect a durable trend, so treat the growth rate with caution.
moderate
Earnings beat may not repeat
The Q2 2026 EPS surprise of +68.8% and QoQ revenue jump of +321.7% are large one-off style moves. Forward P/E of 4.4 against trailing 12.3 implies sharply lower expected earnings, which the data does not explain.
moderate
Price sits above ACCE target
The price of ¥1600.00 trades 1.0% above the ACCE price target of ¥1584.00. Balance sheet data (debt, FCF) is unavailable, so this gap cannot be checked against leverage.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Earnings per share beat expectations by 68.8%, coming in at 51.18 against 30.32 expected.
Revenue grew 27.3% year over year in the latest filings, a sharp rebound.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 1815.45 sits 11.8% above the current share price, and the stock pays a 2.9% dividend yield.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue has fallen 22.1% a year on average over five years, so the latest jump may not last.
Return on equity of 10.8% is modest for a bank-like business, limiting how much profit each unit of capital generates.
Trailing earnings put the shares at 12.3 times earnings, and the forward multiple of 4.4 is too unreliable to lean on.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where 8309.T's valuation models land
Price
¥1600.00
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
¥659
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