Tokyo Seimitsu Co., Ltd. (7729.T) fair value

ACCE thesis

Tokyo Seimitsu makes precision wafer-processing equipment, mainly wafer dicing saws and surface grinders, along with metrology systems used to check wafer flatness and thickness during chip fabrication. Its franchise rests on being one of a small number of suppliers with qualified tools in high-volume memory and logic fabs, where switching a process tool costs customers months of requalification, which makes installed-base revenue sticky. Revenue growth of 18.9% and a 41.6% gross margin point to demand from advanced-packaging and wafer-thinning work outpacing the broader equipment cycle. At 26.6 times trailing earnings and 26.3 times forward, the stock is not cheap, so the case depends on whether the 16.1% operating margin holds as volumes move with the memory and AI-related capex cycle. Its ROE of 14.4% is respectable rather than exceptional, and the market cap of roughly 650 billion yen puts it in a range where it is worth reading the order book and customer capex guidance before forming a view.