Financial Services · Banks - Regional · TSE · Japan
¥2961.50-1.81%
Market cap ¥10.55TNext earnings 2026-11-13Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 75% above our fair value
Price
¥2961.50
Model fair valueConfidence: good
¥1689
Model range
¥1140 to ¥2329
Fair value ¥1689
Price ¥2962
2 models fit JAPAN POST BANK Co., Ltd. and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze58
Valued as a bank: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionJAPAN POST BANK Co., Ltd. (7182.T)
Fair value (2 models)
¥1689
ACCE price target
¥2582
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 15:59 CEST.
Rating published on 23 Oct 2026, 10:03 CEST.
Price used: ¥2962 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
75.4% above
-43.0% to fair value
ACCE score
73
out of 100
P/E
18.0x
forward 25.3x
1-year return
+72.3%
Dividend yield
3.08%
JAPAN POST BANK Co., Ltd. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Japan Post Bank runs Japan's largest retail deposit franchise, taking savings through the country's post office network and investing mainly in Japanese government bonds, alongside consumer loans, mortgages and fee-based products sold through the same counters. Its structural edge is distribution: a nationwide branch footprint built on the postal system, which gives it a deposit base few regional banks can match. The forward P/E of 25.7 against a trailing 18.0 implies consensus expects earnings to fall, so the 30.0% revenue growth and 44.5% operating margin are worth reconciling against that before drawing conclusions. A 6.6% ROE is thin for a bank of this size, which makes capital deployment and any shift in the rate environment the questions that decide whether the name merits a deeper look. Coverage here is limited (no index membership and no score), so the work to do is primarily on the earnings path and the Japanese rate outlook.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Insider ownership concentration
Insiders hold 49.7% of shares, leaving a thin free float. Institutional holders own only 20.6%, so price moves may be less liquid than the market cap suggests.
moderate
Price above ACCE target
The stock trades 14.7% above the ACCE price target of ¥2582.00, while the current price is ¥2961.50. The forward P/E of 25.7 is well above the trailing 18.0.
moderate
Thin ROE against valuation
Return on equity is 6.6%, low for a bank trading at 18.0 times earnings. Earnings growth of 70.2% rests on a single quarter's 17.4% EPS beat, not a sustained trend.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 3642.00 sits 20.8% above the current share price, implying meaningful upside to Street expectations.
Japan Post Bank beat earnings expectations last quarter, with earnings per share of 49.85 against 42.47 expected.
The shares pay a dividend yield of 3.0%, giving investors a cash return while they wait for the stock to re-rate.
Why it could disappoint
Return on equity of 6.6% is low, so the bank earns little on shareholders' capital for the valuation investors are paying.
Revenue has shrunk by an average of 12.0% a year over five years, a long-run decline that a single good year does not reverse.
At 25.7x forward earnings the shares look expensive against a trailing multiple of 18.0x, which assumes the recent profit jump keeps coming.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where 7182.T's valuation models land
Price
¥2961.50
Model fair value
¥1689
Model range
¥1140 to ¥2329
Fair value ¥1689
Price ¥2962
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
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