Market cap ¥483.8BNext earnings 2026-10-29Updated Oct 24, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 23% above our fair value
Price
¥988.80
Model fair valueConfidence: good
¥806
Model range
¥538 to ¥1128
Fair value ¥806
Price ¥989
2 models fit NSK Ltd. and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionNSK Ltd. (6471.T)
Fair value (2 models)
¥806
ACCE price target
¥1166
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST; previously ¥760 since 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously ¥1020 since 17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST.
Price used: ¥989 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
22.7% above
-18.5% to fair value
ACCE score
67
out of 100
P/E
15.5x
forward 17.0x
1-year return
+26.0%
Dividend yield
3.42%
NSK Ltd. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
NSK manufactures ball bearings, roller bearings, and linear motion systems for automotive drivetrains, industrial machinery, and robotics applications. The company benefits from structural tailwinds in electric vehicle adoption, where bearing demand per vehicle is higher than in internal combustion engines due to multi-motor architectures and precision requirements in EV powertrains. Revenue growth of 30.6% reflects strong demand from EV makers ramping production, particularly in China and Japan. Operating margins of 5.6% remain compressed relative to historical levels, but the company is positioned to expand as EV production stabilizes and manufacturing efficiency improves. NSK trades at 18.4x forward earnings while growing revenue at 30%, offering exposure to the EV supply chain at a valuation that does not yet price in margin recovery.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Thin margins, weak returns
Net margin of 3.2% and ROE of 4.9% are low for the sector. The 5-year revenue CAGR of -0.9% suggests the +30.6% YoY jump may not be a durable trend.
moderate
Earnings jump may not repeat
Earnings are up 793.2% YoY and the Q2 EPS beat was 40.6%, off a depressed base. Quality (score 43) is weak, so this growth should be checked before extrapolating.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 16, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 30.6% year over year in the latest interim report, a sharp rebound after a weak long-term trend.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached JPY 47.6B, a 9.1% yield at the current share price.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 1316.00 sits 22.5% above the current share price of JPY 1074.00.
Why it could disappoint
The consensus fair value of JPY 759.99 sits 29.2% below the current share price, suggesting the stock already looks expensive.
Net margin of 3.2% and return on equity of 4.9% are thin for a company that is supposedly recovering.
Forward P/E of 18.5x is above the sector median of 17.5x, so investors already pay a premium for the expected earnings rebound.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where 6471.T's valuation models land
Price
¥988.80
Model fair value
¥806
Model range
¥538 to ¥1128
Fair value ¥806
Price ¥989
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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