Technology · Information Technology Services · TSE · Japan
¥4392.00+1.01%
Market cap ¥1.67TNext earnings 2026-10-30Updated Oct 24, 2026 · valuation updating
Our verdict
No fair value
We are missing the financial data our models need for this company. It will appear once the data arrives.
Not valued: there are no financial statements on file yet.
ACCE opinionOtsuka Corporation (4768.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥3952
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥4392 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
65
out of 100
P/E
24.9x
forward 28.9x
1-year return
+42.9%
Dividend yield
2.30%
Otsuka Corporation in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Otsuka Corporation is a Tokyo-listed IT services firm that builds and runs core business systems for Japanese banks, insurers and manufacturers, with its own packaged software and a large in-house development base doing much of the work. Its edge is switching cost: once a client's core system runs on Otsuka's platforms and staff, replacing it is slow and expensive, which supports the 8.7% revenue growth in the data and a 17.0% ROE. Demand is being pushed by Japan's ageing legacy systems and the need to modernise them, which gives the company a multi-year pipeline rather than one-off projects. The market is paying a premium for that durability, with a trailing P/E of 23.9 rising to a forward 28.6, so the question for a PM is whether margins can widen from a 7.2% operating margin, which leaves little room for error if the growth slows. It merits a deeper look on whether the forward multiple is justified by execution on that margin expansion.
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings lag revenue growth
Revenue grew 8.7% year on year, but earnings grew only 3.0%, so the net margin of 4.8% is under pressure from costs. The stock also trades 11.1% above the ACCE price target of ¥3952.00.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 8.7% over the last year, and the company has averaged 15.4% annual growth across five years.
Return on equity of 17.0% and free cash flow of JPY 57.0B show the business generating solid returns on its capital.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 13.8% in the latest reporting period, with 53.52 reported against 47.02 expected.
Why it could disappoint
The share price of ¥4392.00 sits above the ACCE price target of ¥3952.00, a gap of 11.1% that leaves little room for upside.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 3889.17 implies a fall of 10.6% from the current share price.
Trailing P/E of 24.6x and forward P/E of 28.6x look expensive for a net margin of only 4.8%.
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