ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 15:59 CEST.
Price used: ¥6795 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
63
out of 100
P/E
23.7x
forward 28.8x
1-year return
-5.0%
Dividend yield
2.00%
Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Chugai makes prescription drugs in Japan, with its best-known franchise being the Roche-partnered oncology and rare-disease products, including the Hemlibra haemophilia treatment that it co-develops and sells through Roche. Its moat is the pipeline and the royalty-bearing position in Roche's global portfolio, which gives it a 71.3% gross margin and a 47.1% operating margin, both very high for a pharma company of this scale. Revenue growth of 17.8% is strong for a company this size, and the forward P/E of 28.0 against a trailing 22.7 tells you the market expects earnings to keep compounding rather than peak. The question for a deeper look is whether that growth can persist as the key products face competitive and pricing pressure, and whether the pipeline is replacing the cash flows that depend on them. The valuation leaves little room for a stumble, so the work is in the pipeline read-through and the durability of the Roche relationship.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings missed estimates
Q2 2026 EPS came in 5.2% below expectations, even though trailing earnings grew 19.7% year on year. The miss is worth watching against the 28.0 forward P/E.
moderate
Heavy insider ownership
Insiders hold 59.9% of shares, so a small group controls most of the float and the stock may trade thinly on news. Five-year revenue CAGR of -0.4% also sits oddly beside the recent 17.8% growth.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 17.8% year over year, a sharp turn after years of a shrinking top line.
Net margin of 35.1% and return on equity of 23.5% show a business that turns sales into unusually high profit.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 8643.33 sits 30.7% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Over five years revenue has averaged a decline of 0.4% a year, so the recent jump may not last.
The latest quarter's earnings per share missed expectations by 5.2%, with 70.69 reported against 74.57 expected.
A forward P/E of 28.0x above the trailing 23.1x implies investors expect earnings to fall, which makes the shares look expensive on that view.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where 4519.T's valuation models land
Price
¥6795.00
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
+Score history: how each score moved over time
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PRO
In one line
Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.