Market cap ¥668.4BNext earnings 2026-09-11Updated Oct 24, 2026 · valuation updating
Our verdict
No fair value
We are missing the financial data our models need for this company. It will appear once the data arrives.
Not valued: there are no financial statements on file yet.
ACCE opinionKobe Bussan Co., Ltd. (3038.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥2900
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST.
Price used: ¥3013 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
44
out of 100
P/E
22.9x
forward 29.3x
1-year return
-19.4%
Dividend yield
1.07%
Kobe Bussan Co., Ltd. in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Kobe Bussan operates the Gyomu Super chain of Japanese supermarkets, selling groceries and daily essentials in the Kansai and Kanto regions alongside its sales of household goods and related products. Its edge is a low-cost, high-frequency format that keeps food and everyday items priced low enough to win repeat trips, and the company has been growing revenue at 5.4% with a 7.0% operating margin, which is respectable for a grocer. The near-term driver is store expansion in its existing regions, where each new outlet adds to a base of local shopper density that is hard for larger rivals to replicate cheaply. The stock trades at 22.7x trailing earnings and 29.0x forward, so the market is paying up for expected earnings growth rather than for the current margin profile, which makes the forward multiple the number to test against the store roll-out pace. With a 16.6% ROE and an index-free profile at a 661.3 billion yen market cap, it is a mid-cap domestic defensive worth a closer look if you want exposure to Japanese consumer staples without the large-cap weight.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsed despite revenue growth
Earnings fell 42.3% year on year while revenue grew 5.4%, so net margin of 5.1% is being squeezed. Forward P/E of 29.0 against trailing 22.7 assumes a sharp recovery that has not yet shown up in reported numbers.
moderate
Valuation rests on recovery
EV/EBITDA of 11.7 and the step-up from trailing to forward P/E leave little room if margins stay near the current 7.0% operating level. Price is ¥3013.00.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Earnings beat expectations by a wide margin, with earnings per share of 47.75 against 31.62 expected.
Revenue has compounded at 10.7% a year over five years, though growth slowed to 5.4% in the latest year.
Return on equity of 16.6% and debt to equity of 0.14 point to a profitable business with a light debt load.
Why it could disappoint
The shares trade at 29.0x forward earnings, well above the 22.7x trailing multiple, so the market already expects growth.
Latest-year revenue growth of 5.4% is roughly half the five-year average, suggesting the expansion is losing pace.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 3335.00 implies only 11.9% upside, and the dividend yield is a modest 1.1%.
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