Market cap ¥13.38TNext earnings 2026-10-29Updated Oct 24, 2026 · valuation updating
Our verdict
No fair value
We are missing the financial data our models need for this company. It will appear once the data arrives.
Not valued: there are no financial statements on file yet.
ACCE opinionJapan Tobacco Inc. (2914.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥6637
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 15:59 CEST.
Price used: ¥7539 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
80
out of 100
P/E
21.7x
forward 25.0x
1-year return
+50.6%
Dividend yield
3.64%
Japan Tobacco Inc. in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Japan Tobacco makes combustible cigarettes (Mevius, Winston, Camel), the Ploom heated tobacco system and its consumables, and a pharmaceuticals arm, and it sells these across Japan, Europe and the rest of the world. The moat is in cigarettes: a dominant Japanese franchise with high pricing power, and a 31.7% operating margin and 56.9% gross margin that reflect it. The near-term swing factor is the heated tobacco business, where Ploom consumables are the growth engine and the pace of adoption against the incumbent Philip Morris IQOS platform will decide how much of the 17.0% revenue growth is durable. At 21.7 times trailing earnings and 24.8 times forward, the market is pricing in continued execution rather than a deep discount, so the question for a deeper look is whether heated tobacco margins can offset volume declines in traditional cigarettes.
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Price above ACCE target
Shares trade 13.6% above the ACCE price target of ¥6637.00, so the stock has run ahead of our last update. Forward P/E of 24.8 sits above trailing 21.7, implying earnings growth is already priced in.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Japan Tobacco generated JPY 258.4B of free cash flow over the last twelve months, a strong cash base for its dividend.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 32.7%, with reported EPS of 132.25 against 99.65 expected.
Revenue grew 17.0% year over year, and the company keeps a net margin of 16.7%.
Why it could disappoint
The shares trade at 24.8x forward earnings, and the stock sits 13.6% above the ACCE price target of ¥6637.00.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 7312.85 sits 2.2% below the current share price, so the crowd sees limited upside.
Forward EPS sits below trailing EPS, implying earnings may fade after a year of strong growth.
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Where 2914.T's valuation models land
Price
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