TTD is down 74.6% over one year and logged a confirmed loss. Here's how every open ACCE pick, CMCSA, NFLX, BABA, ORCL, BSX and more, stands today.
TTD, CMCSA, NFLX, BABA, ORCL: Open Picks Scorecard, August 2026
The Trade Desk (TTD) is the one confirmed loss in the current open-picks roster, down 29.8% from entry. That number deserves a direct look before anything else, because the thesis behind it illustrates exactly what can go wrong when a wide analyst target range masks a deteriorating fundamental picture.
This post walks through every open pick as of August 24, 2026: what the original thesis was, what the data says now, and where each one stands.
The Confirmed Loss: The Trade Desk (TTD)
The original case for TTD rested on revenue growth near 18% and a business with genuine structural advantages in programmatic advertising. The analyst target dispersion was flagged at the time as a warning sign: a $11 low versus a $38 high on the same stock signals deep disagreement about the business model, not just valuation.
That disagreement has resolved to the downside. TTD now shows revenue growth of just 3.0% year over year and earnings down 23.6%. The momentum score sits at 17 out of 100. The one-year return is -74.6%. The 6-model fair value of $15.29 implies only 15.2% upside from the current price of $13.27, which is a thin margin of safety for a business that is decelerating this sharply. The analyst consensus target of $13.39 is essentially at the current price. There is no valuation floor being built here; the market is pricing in continued erosion.
Lesson: wide target dispersion is not a contrarian opportunity by itself. When the bull case depends on a re-acceleration that has not materialized, the bear case wins by default.
The Value Traps or Genuine Discounts? CMCSA and CI
Comcast (CMCSA) was picked into a floor-level earnings bar, with consensus modeling a 22.4% year-over-year decline into the July 23 print. The actual result was worse: earnings fell 66.8% year over year, revenue declined 1.2%, and the stock now sits at $26.78. The 6-model fair value of $46.08 implies 72.1% upside, and the FCF yield of 23.0% is genuinely exceptional. The Value score is a perfect 100. But the Growth score is 7 out of 100, and the momentum score is 23. The market is not wrong to discount a business losing broadband subscribers. The question is whether the 5.0% dividend yield and the FCF generation hold while the secular headwind plays out.
Cigna (CI) is the cleaner value story. At $277.83, the stock trades at 9.0x forward earnings with a 6-model fair value of $411.97, a 48.3% gap. The FCF yield is 11.4%, ROE is 16.8%, and the analyst target of $341.42 sits 17% above the current price. Earnings grew 10.2% year over year. The Value score is 100. The risk is the Quality score of 49 and a net margin of just 2.3%, which is thin for an $80 billion insurer and reflects the managed care sector's ongoing cost pressure. CI beat its most recent quarter and raised guidance. The thesis is intact.
The Growth Stories: NFLX, ORCL, BABA
Netflix (NFLX) at $79.74 is the most straightforward hold. Revenue grew 13.4% year over year, earnings grew 11.1%, operating margins are 28.2%, and ROE is 49.5%. The one complication: the 6-model fair value of $73.72 is 7.6% below the current price. The stock is not cheap by any model. The original pick noted the multiple was at levels last seen years ago; that multiple has not compressed. NFLX earns its premium through execution, but there is no margin of safety in the price right now.
Oracle (ORCL) is the most interesting setup in the group. Revenue accelerated to 20.6% year over year, earnings grew 21.9%, and the ROE is 53.4% with a net margin of 25.4%. The Growth score is 80, Quality is 82. The analyst target of $246.43 sits 68% above the current price of $146.40. The 6-model fair value of $155.04 is more conservative, implying just 5.9% upside, which suggests the analyst community is pricing in a significant re-rating that the models do not yet support. The one-year return is -37.2%, which means the stock has been derated even as the fundamentals improved. That divergence is either the setup or the trap.
Alibaba (BABA) at $119.81 trades at 14.3x forward earnings with a 6-model fair value of $184.51, a 54.0% gap. The analyst target of $190.16 is similarly distant. The cloud unit compounding at 38% is the core thesis. The problem is the headline: earnings fell 79.4% year over year, the FCF yield is -17.7%, and the momentum score is 38. The market has heard the cloud story for two years. Until the earnings line reflects it, the discount persists for a reason.
The Spinoff and the Medtech: HONA and BSX
Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) cut guidance 38 days after completing its spinoff, blaming supply constraints rather than demand weakness. The stock fell 24% in a single session. At $165.98, the forward P/E is 21.3x and the 6-model fair value is $259.88, implying 56.6% upside. The analyst target of $218.38 is 31.6% above the current price. The supply-not-demand framing matters: if the constraint resolves, the earnings power is intact. The ACCE score of 45 reflects the uncertainty.
Boston Scientific (BSX) at $50.47 is the quality anchor in the group. ROE of 15.3%, net margin of 17.5%, FCF yield of 5.0%, and a Quality score of 79. Revenue grew 7.5%, earnings grew 15.1%. The 6-model fair value of $56.19 implies 11.3% upside. The one-year return of -52.0% is the headline, but the business has not deteriorated; the multiple has compressed. The analyst target of $62.69 implies 24.3% upside from here.
The Catalyst Plays: EVTC and KBR
Evertec (EVTC) beat on revenue by 4.8%, raised full-year guidance, and expanded its buyback to 7.9% of market cap. Revenue grew 19.7% year over year. The 6-model fair value of $52.63 implies 76.7% upside from $29.79. The analyst target of $35.60 is more conservative. The Value score is 80. The one risk is earnings quality flagged as mixed and a trailing earnings decline of 85.7%, which reflects non-cash items rather than operational deterioration.
KBR at $38.64 has the most dramatic valuation gap in the entire roster: a 6-model fair value of $96.91 implies 150.8% upside. Earnings grew 33.1% year over year, ROE is 27.5%, and the Value score is 96. The tax-free separation catalyst is 20 weeks out. The one-year return of -22.1% reflects the market's skepticism about the timeline, not the business quality.
The open picks span a wide range of outcomes: one confirmed loss in TTD, several theses intact but untested by price action, and a handful where the valuation gap has widened rather than closed since entry. KBR's separation timeline and ORCL's fundamental-versus-price divergence are the two setups most likely to force a resolution before year-end.
