Alcoa's ($AA) ACCE composite score jumped 29 points, moving from 48 to 77 out of 100. That's a large single move, and it puts $AA firmly into territory the model treats as compelling. The score breakdown tells the story: Growth sits at a perfect 100, Value at 92, Quality at 69, and Momentum at 46.
A move of this magnitude almost always reflects a sharp re-rating in at least two subscores simultaneously. Here, Growth and Value are doing the heavy lifting.
What it means
Growth (100/100): The underlying data backs this up. Revenue grew 31.4% year over year, and earnings grew 146.8% over the same period. Those are not incremental improvements — they represent a business that has accelerated sharply. When the growth subscore hits the ceiling, it typically means the model sees both top-line expansion and earnings leverage working together, which is exactly what the numbers show.
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Value (92/100): At a trailing P/E of 11.3 and a forward P/E of 7.9, $AA is priced at a meaningful discount to what the model thinks it's worth. The 6-model fair value estimate sits at $73.06, which implies roughly 60.5% upside from the current price of $45.51. The analyst consensus target of $65.78 points in the same direction. A Value subscore of 92 reflects that gap — the market is pricing $AA well below where multiple valuation frameworks converge.
Quality (69/100): This is the area that keeps the overall score from running higher. ROE of 18.2% and a net margin of 9.4% are solid for a basic materials company, and the FCF yield of 4.9% shows the business is generating real cash. However, the data flags earnings quality as mixed, which likely explains why Quality lands at 69 rather than in the 80s or 90s. That's worth watching — strong headline earnings growth is more durable when the underlying cash generation is clean.
Momentum (46/100): The 1-year return of 54.8% is strong in absolute terms, but the Momentum subscore at 46 suggests the recent price trend has cooled or that near-term technical signals are neutral. A score below 50 here means the model isn't seeing the kind of sustained upward price action that would push the composite even higher. This is the subscore most likely to shift quickly in either direction.
The one caution: $AA's most recent quarter (Q3 FY2026) produced a narrow earnings miss of 0.1%. That's small, but it's a reminder that execution matters, particularly when a stock is trading at a significant discount to fair value and the market is waiting for confirmation.
The score move from 48 to 77 reflects a stock where the fundamental case has strengthened considerably. The gap between price and fair value is wide, the growth numbers are real, and Quality is improving — but not yet clean enough to ignore. For current price and full model detail, visit acceinvestments.com/stocks/AA.
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