UNH

ACCE-researched
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock (DE)
Healthcare · Healthcare Plans · NYSE · United States
$377.56+0.18%
Market cap $338.9BNext earnings 2026-10-13Updated Sep 20, 2026
FAIR VALUE · CONSENSUS
$377.56+0.0%
confidence-weighted across 5 of 6 models
Now $377.56
$377.56
$176.79$779.90
HoldSilver74
Price vs fair value
5.3% below
+5.6% to fair value
ACCE score
62
out of 100
Analysts
74% buy
27 covering
P/E
24.2x
forward 16.7x
1-year return
+12.1%
Dividend yield
2.37%
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Overview

ACCE thesis

UnitedHealth operates the largest private health insurer in America with 53 million members while running Optum, a $226 billion healthcare services behemoth spanning pharmacy benefits, medical care delivery, and health tech. The company controls critical healthcare infrastructure from insurance payments to prescription drug distribution, creating switching costs that competitors struggle to replicate. Management expects 13-16% earnings growth through 2027 driven by Medicare Advantage membership expansion and Optum's margin improvement as it integrates recent acquisitions. Trading at 16x forward earnings despite generating $24 billion in annual free cash flow, UNH offers defensive growth in a sector where scale advantages compound over decades. The stock has pulled back 8% since October highs while fundamentals accelerate into 2025.

Written Apr 18, 2026
Investor warnings · 4 flags
  • high
    Severe margin compression
    Net margin only 2.7% and operating margin 8.1%; for a $385B healthcare insurer these are dangerously thin, signalling rising medical costs.
  • high
    Earnings growth near stall
    EPS growth +0.7% YoY and revenue +2.0% YoY vs 5y CAGR of 23.4% - dramatic deceleration raising sustainability concerns.
  • moderate
    Stock above fair value
    Current price $429.25 exceeds ACCE fair value $380 (range top $410.40), implying ~13% downside to model estimate.
  • moderate
    Trailing vs forward P/E gap
    P/E 32x vs forward P/E 23.3x implies consensus expects sharp earnings recovery; failure to deliver would reprice stock significantly.
Reports in 21 days, last quarter beat by 0.3%.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Price

+10.6% · 1Y

Valuation

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Full valuation engine INVESTOR FEATURE

Six independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.

  • +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
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Quality

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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.

  • +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
  • +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
  • +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish74% buy · 27 covering analysts
Strong buy 14 Buy 6 Hold 5 Sell 1 Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Recent open-market insider transactions
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 40% of peers
low 11.4x24.2xhigh 1236.3x
ROEbetter than 83% of peers
low -20%14%high 17%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 0.0%2.4%high 3.0%

Algorithmic peers (6)

TickerCompanyMcapP/EROED/EYieldQuality
CVSCVS Health Corporation Common Stock$112.0B23.16.2%0.863.0%-Compare
ELVElevance Health Inc. Common Stock$88.8B18.111.1%0.731.7%-Compare
CIThe Cigna Group Common Stock$72.5B11.416.8%0.752.2%-Compare
HUMHumana Inc. Common Stock$45.5B35.86.9%0.700.9%-Compare
CNCCentene Corporation Common Stock$32.1B--20.4%0.870.0%-Compare
MOHMolina Healthcare Inc Common Stock$10.3B1236.3-0.2%0.930.0%-Compare

Sector report card

Where UNH ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…

News and Record

Reports in 21 days, last quarter beat by 0.3%.

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Recent performance

1 week
-1.6%
1 month
-3.2%
3 months
-7.7%
6 months
+39.6%
YTD
+14.4%
1 year
+12.1%

SEC filings

40 filings
September 2026
Sep 8
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-08
Sep 4
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-02
August 2026
Aug 25
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-21
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR

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