LITE

ACCE-researched
Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock
Technology · Communication Equipment · NASDAQ · United States
$954.49+2.53%
Market cap $83.5BNext earnings 2026-11-03Updated Sep 20, 2026
FAIR VALUE · CONSENSUS
$954.49+0.0%
confidence-weighted across 2 of 6 models
Now $954.49
$954.49
$599.43$599.43
AvoidSilver67
Price vs fair value
178.8% above
-64.1% to fair value
ACCE score
67
out of 100
Analysts
75% buy
16 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 42.7x
1-year return
+465.7%
Dividend yield
0.00%
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Overview

⚠ Investor warnings · 5 flags
  • severe
    Valuation extreme disconnect
    P/E 141x, EV/EBITDA 113x, P/S 25x on a stock with 5y rev CAGR of only 6.7% implies catastrophic downside if growth disappoints.
  • high
    Score spike suspicious
    ACCE score surged +65 in 90 days (5→70), Value sub-score still 14/100, suggesting momentum-driven re-rating not fundamental improvement.
  • high
    Negative free cash flow
    FCF is -$104.7M despite reported profitability, raising questions about earnings quality and cash conversion.
  • high
    Elevated short interest
    Short interest at 13.7% signals significant institutional skepticism; squeeze risk cuts both ways.
  • moderate
    Heavy insider selling
    Insiders sold $25.71M with zero buys in last 10 disclosed transactions, a bearish signal at current elevated prices.
Reports in 42 days, last quarter beat by 0.0%.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Price

+479.5% · 1Y

Valuation

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Full valuation engine INVESTOR FEATURE

Six independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.

  • +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
  • +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
  • +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios

Quality

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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.

  • +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
  • +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
  • +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish75% buy · 16 covering analysts
● Strong buy 8● Buy 4● Hold 3● Sell 1● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Recent open-market insider transactions
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0x0.0xhigh 80.0x
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low -240%-240%high 92%
Div yieldbetter than 17% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 1.5%

Algorithmic peers (6)

TickerCompanyMcapP/EROED/EYieldQuality
HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company Common Stock$80.7B31.310.9%0.910.9%-Compare
MSIMotorola Solutions Inc. Common Stock$75.9B36.191.6%3.801.0%-Compare
300502.SZEoptolink Technology Inc., Ltd.$95.1B48.572.1%-0.2%-Compare
NOKIA.HENokia$61.8B80.03.5%0.161.5%-Compare
NOKNokia Corporation Sponsored American Depositary Shares$59.8B76.33.5%0.161.3%-Compare
CIENCiena Corporation Common Stock$49.5B78.222.4%0.560.0%-Compare

Sector report card

Where LITE ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…

News and Record

Reports in 42 days, last quarter beat by 0.0%.

Press releases mentioning this company

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Recent performance

1 week
+14.3%
1 month
+10.1%
3 months
+15.3%
6 months
+22.8%
YTD
+159.0%
1 year
+465.7%

SEC filings

40 filings
September 2026
Sep 18
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-16
Sep 15
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-11
Sep 10
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-08
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR