COIN
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
Coinbase operates the dominant U.S. crypto exchange and custody infrastructure, processing spot trading, staking, and institutional prime brokerage across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and hundreds of altcoins. The network effect is real - Base, their L2 chain, generated over $50M in revenue in 2024 and creates a self-reinforcing flywheel where developer activity drives on-chain volume back through Coinbase's ecosystem. A more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under the new administration is already unlocking institutional flows that sat on the sidelines for two years. At a forward P/E of 38.8x, the market is pricing in recovery, but not the scenario where crypto trading volumes re-accelerate sharply - transaction revenue collapsed 30.8% last cycle and the operating leverage on the upside is violent in the other direction. The thesis requires believing spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and institutional adoption structurally floor retail volatility revenues while subscription and services revenue - now nearly 40% of total - continues compounding regardless of price action.
- highRevenue decline severeRevenue down 30.8% YoY and 20.7% QoQ, signaling sharp cyclical deterioration tied to crypto market volumes.
- highForward P/E vs operating lossForward P/E of 117.6x while operating margin is -7.1%; earnings recovery priced in but not yet operational.
- moderateElevated short interestShort interest at 11.3% of float indicates meaningful bearish conviction from institutional participants.
- moderateInsider selling onlyLast 10 disclosed transactions show $7.61M in sales, zero buys; no insider conviction at current price levels.
- moderateTrading above model fair valueCurrent price $165.09 vs ACCE fair value $145.00, implying ~14% downside on model basis with ACCE Quality score only 61/100.
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Price
Valuation
INVESTORSix independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.
- +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
- +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
- +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios
Quality
INVESTORThe full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.
- +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
- +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
- +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
- +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
- +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
- +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDAQ | Nasdaq Inc. Common Stock | $52.3B | 27.3 | 16.5% | 0.74 | 1.2% | - | Compare |
| LSEG.L | London Stock Exchange Group | $53.1B | 29.7 | 7.7% | 0.56 | 1.9% | - | Compare |
| DB1.DE | Deutsche Boerse | $57.4B | 24.0 | 20.4% | 0.67 | 1.5% | - | Compare |
| 0388.HK | Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing | $62.5B | 24.8 | 33.6% | 0.01 | 3.6% | - | Compare |
| MSCI | MSCI Inc. Common Stock | $40.2B | 30.2 | 0.0% | -2.35 | 1.4% | - | Compare |
| MCO | Moody's Corporation Common Stock | $81.2B | 29.8 | 76.9% | 1.75 | 0.9% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where COIN ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
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