CMI
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
Cummins designs and manufactures diesel and natural gas engines, filtration systems, and power generation equipment for heavy-duty trucks, industrial machinery, and backup power applications across 190 countries. The Atmus Filtration spin-off in 2023 sharpened the portfolio, and Cummins now controls roughly 40% of the North American Class 8 truck engine market - a position that took decades to build and that Daimler or PACCAR can't easily replicate. The Accelera division, housing hydrogen fuel cells and electrolyzers, is the growth story the market hasn't fully priced: federal IRA subsidies and a 2024 partnership with NREL position Cummins as the rare incumbent with a credible zero-emission powertrain offering for heavy-duty applications where battery-electric physics don't work. The forward P/E compressing from 35x trailing to 20x forward signals a significant earnings inflection driven by margin recovery in the components segment and normalizing warranty costs that hit 2023 hard. At $93B market cap with 22% ROE and a business that generates meaningful free cash flow through cycles, the risk/reward hinges almost entirely on whether Accelera hits its 2027 revenue targets - worth the diligence.
- highEarnings decline severeEarnings YoY down 21.0% despite only 2.7% revenue growth, signaling significant cost pressure or one-off charges compressing net margin to 7.9%.
- moderateElevated trailing P/ETrailing P/E of 35.1 vs forward 23.6 implies market expects sharp earnings recovery; if recovery disappoints, valuation looks stretched.
- moderateOperating margin thinOperating margin of 9.8% is low for a specialty industrial compounder; leaves limited buffer against revenue softness or input cost spikes.
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Price
Valuation
INVESTORSix independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.
- +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
- +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
- +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios
Quality
INVESTORThe full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.
- +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
- +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
- +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
- +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
- +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
- +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works Inc. Common Stock | $76.7B | 24.4 | 104.6% | 2.78 | 2.4% | - | Compare |
| 7011.T | Mitsubishi Heavy Industries | $82.6B | 55.6 | 14.7% | 26.36 | 0.8% | - | Compare |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Company Common Stock | $83.6B | 32.8 | 12.8% | 0.65 | 1.5% | - | Compare |
| ATCO-B.ST | Atlas Copco B | $84.7B | 31.3 | 25.7% | 0.25 | 1.7% | - | Compare |
| ATCO-A.ST | Atlas Copco A | $97.6B | 36.1 | 25.7% | 0.25 | 1.5% | - | Compare |
| AME | AMETEK Inc. | $54.5B | 34.7 | 14.6% | 0.21 | 0.5% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where CMI ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
- GlobeNewswire•Jul 27, 2026Dave Crompton Appointed to Board of Directors of Garrett Motion Inc.
- Business Wire•Jul 23, 2026Cummins Announces Phased Model Year 2027 Product Launch Plan
- Business Wire•May 12, 2026Cummins Inc. Declares Quarterly Common Stock Dividend
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