CMI

ACCE-researched
Cummins Inc. Common Stock
Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery · NYSE · United States
$532.23+1.59%
Market cap $73.3BNext earnings 2026-11-05Updated Sep 19, 2026
FAIR VALUE · CONSENSUS
$532.23+0.0%
confidence-weighted across 4 of 6 models
Now $532.23
$532.23
$151.43$691.83
TrimBronze49
Price vs fair value
24.9% above
-19.9% to fair value
ACCE score
57
out of 100
Analysts
33% buy
24 covering
P/E
27.2x
forward 15.6x
1-year return
+24.8%
Dividend yield
1.53%
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Overview

ACCE thesis

Cummins designs and manufactures diesel and natural gas engines, filtration systems, and power generation equipment for heavy-duty trucks, industrial machinery, and backup power applications across 190 countries. The Atmus Filtration spin-off in 2023 sharpened the portfolio, and Cummins now controls roughly 40% of the North American Class 8 truck engine market - a position that took decades to build and that Daimler or PACCAR can't easily replicate. The Accelera division, housing hydrogen fuel cells and electrolyzers, is the growth story the market hasn't fully priced: federal IRA subsidies and a 2024 partnership with NREL position Cummins as the rare incumbent with a credible zero-emission powertrain offering for heavy-duty applications where battery-electric physics don't work. The forward P/E compressing from 35x trailing to 20x forward signals a significant earnings inflection driven by margin recovery in the components segment and normalizing warranty costs that hit 2023 hard. At $93B market cap with 22% ROE and a business that generates meaningful free cash flow through cycles, the risk/reward hinges almost entirely on whether Accelera hits its 2027 revenue targets - worth the diligence.

Written May 19, 2026
Investor warnings · 3 flags
  • high
    Earnings decline severe
    Earnings YoY down 21.0% despite only 2.7% revenue growth, signaling significant cost pressure or one-off charges compressing net margin to 7.9%.
  • moderate
    Elevated trailing P/E
    Trailing P/E of 35.1 vs forward 23.6 implies market expects sharp earnings recovery; if recovery disappoints, valuation looks stretched.
  • moderate
    Operating margin thin
    Operating margin of 9.8% is low for a specialty industrial compounder; leaves limited buffer against revenue softness or input cost spikes.
Reports in 45 days, last quarter missed by 0.1%.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Price

+25.3% · 1Y

Valuation

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Full valuation engine INVESTOR FEATURE

Six independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.

  • +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
  • +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
  • +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios

Quality

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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.

  • +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
  • +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
  • +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish33% buy · 24 covering analysts
Strong buy 5 Buy 3 Hold 15 Sell 0 Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Recent open-market insider transactions
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 83% of peers
low 24.4x27.2xhigh 55.6x
ROEbetter than 50% of peers
low 13%21%high 105%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.5%1.5%high 2.4%

Algorithmic peers (6)

TickerCompanyMcapP/EROED/EYieldQuality
ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. Common Stock$76.7B24.4104.6%2.782.4%-Compare
7011.TMitsubishi Heavy Industries$82.6B55.614.7%26.360.8%-Compare
EMREmerson Electric Company Common Stock$83.6B32.812.8%0.651.5%-Compare
ATCO-B.STAtlas Copco B$84.7B31.325.7%0.251.7%-Compare
ATCO-A.STAtlas Copco A$97.6B36.125.7%0.251.5%-Compare
AMEAMETEK Inc.$54.5B34.714.6%0.210.5%-Compare

Sector report card

Where CMI ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…

News and Record

Reports in 45 days, last quarter missed by 0.1%.

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Recent performance

1 week
-4.4%
1 month
-12.5%
3 months
-25.8%
6 months
-0.2%
YTD
+4.3%
1 year
+24.8%

SEC filings

40 filings
August 2026
Aug 25
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-24
Aug 4
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-06-30
Aug 4
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-08-04
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR