CHD
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
Church & Dwight manufactures and sells a portfolio of power brands across personal care, household, and specialty products - ARM & HAMMER, VITAFUSION, BATISTE, THERABREATH, and OxiClean anchor a lineup that spans toothpaste, gummy vitamins, dry shampoo, and laundry additives sold through every major mass and grocery channel in the US. The real structural edge here is the ARM & HAMMER franchise, a 175-year-old brand with near-universal household penetration that gives CHD shelf placement leverage most challenger brands can never buy. THERABREATH, acquired in late 2021 for $580M, is the growth engine right now - it has taken meaningful share in the premium mouthwash segment against Listerine and continues to expand distribution internationally. The forward PE of 23.5x against a 20%+ operating margin business with a history of acquiring sub-scale personal care brands and re-accelerating their growth makes the math defensible, but revenue growth sitting at 0.2% is the problem - this is a premium-priced compounder that needs volume recovery to justify the multiple. If organic growth reaccelerates toward the 3-4% range management has historically delivered, this multiple compresses fast; if it doesn't, you're paying 23x for a stall.
- moderateNear-zero revenue growthRevenue YoY growth is only +0.2%, far below the 5-year CAGR of +8.6%, signaling meaningful deceleration.
- moderateQuarterly earnings declineQoQ earnings dropped -10.6%, suggesting near-term profitability pressure despite modest annual growth of +2.2%.
- moderatePremium valuation, weak growthP/E of 32x and EV/EBITDA of 19.1x look stretched given near-flat revenue growth, leaving little margin for error.
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Price
Valuation
INVESTORSix independent models converge on one confidence-weighted fair value, with full methodology and editable assumptions.
- +All six models: DCF, P/E and EV/EBITDA comps, Graham, dividend discount, residual income
- +Scenario bands, sensitivity tornado, and the 5-year historical valuation range
- +Editable DCF workbench with saved scenarios
Quality
INVESTORThe full quality picture: conviction breakdown, earnings quality, score history, and backtested returns.
- +Conviction score breakdown and earnings-quality grade
- +Growth / value / quality / momentum component scores
- +90-day score history and score-threshold backtests
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
- +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
- +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
- +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEI.DE | Beiersdorf | $18.7B | 17.3 | 10.9% | 0.02 | 1.3% | - | Compare |
| ESSITY-B.ST | Essity B | $18.0B | 14.7 | 14.0% | 0.39 | 3.3% | - | Compare |
| KMB | Kimberly-Clark Corporation Common Stock | $32.5B | 19.3 | 104.9% | 4.77 | 5.2% | - | Compare |
| HEN3.DE | Henkel pref | $33.9B | 15.5 | 9.4% | 0.15 | 2.8% | - | Compare |
| KVUE | Kenvue Inc. Common Stock | $34.2B | 21.0 | 15.6% | 0.78 | 4.6% | - | Compare |
| EL | Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (The) Common Stock | $34.9B | 192.7 | 4.8% | 1.92 | 1.5% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where CHD ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
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