AXON
ACCE-researchedOverview
ACCE thesis
Axon produces TASER weapons and body cameras for law enforcement agencies, generating 80% of revenue from hardware sales and 20% from cloud-based evidence management software. The company dominates both markets with roughly 70% share in conducted energy weapons and leading positions in body cameras, creating switching costs through integrated ecosystems that lock agencies into multi-year contracts. Revenue acceleration to 34% growth reflects expanding TAM as police departments modernize equipment and embrace cloud storage mandates following nationwide transparency initiatives. Trading at 37x forward earnings despite 3.7% operating margins signals the market expects dramatic margin expansion as software revenue scales - a reasonable bet given Axon's recurring revenue mix jumped from 15% to 30% over the past three years. The $31B valuation appears rich, but increasing software attachment rates and international expansion into the UK and Australia provide legitimate paths to justify current multiples.
- highExtreme valuation premiumP/E 221x, EV/EBITDA 146x, P/S 15.3x; ACCE fair value $420 implies ~22% downside from current $540.77.
- highRazor-thin operating marginOperating margin only 3.8% despite 59.5% gross margin, signaling heavy opex burden relative to revenue scale.
- moderateValuation score near zeroACCE Valuation sub-score is 10/100, flagging severe overvaluation even after strong growth is accounted for.
- moderateInsider selling, no buyingLast 10 disclosed transactions show $3.46M in sales and $0 in buys, suggesting insiders not adding exposure at current prices.
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Price
Valuation
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Quality
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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Smart Money
PROFollow the institutions: 13F position changes, insider trades, and active 13D activist filings.
- +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
- +Recent open-market insider transactions
- +Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
Algorithmic peers (6)
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | P/E | ROE | D/E | Yield | Quality | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESLT | Elbit Systems Ltd. Ordinary Shares | $35.2B | 56.5 | 15.2% | 0.09 | 0.5% | - | Compare |
| HAL.NS | Hindustan Aeronautics Limited | $33.9B | 34.9 | 24.0% | 0.16 | 0.4% | - | Compare |
| LDO.MI | Leonardo S.p.a. | $33.5B | 26.0 | 11.9% | 41.53 | 1.3% | - | Compare |
| HEI | Heico Corporation Common Stock | $41.7B | 49.8 | 17.7% | 0.50 | 0.1% | - | Compare |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab Corporation Common Stock | $44.7B | - | -7.9% | 0.09 | 0.0% | - | Compare |
| LHX | L3Harris Technologies Inc. Common Stock | $46.0B | 25.0 | 9.3% | 0.57 | 2.0% | - | Compare |
Sector report card
Where AXON ranks against its sector peers on each metric.
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
- PR Newswire•Sep 16, 2026Axon Announces Pricing of $1.0 Billion Offering of 0% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2031
- GlobeNewswire•Sep 2, 2026Byrna Appoints Matt McBrady to Board of Directors
- Business Wire•Aug 14, 2026Liberty All-Star® Growth Fund, Inc. July 2026 Monthly Update
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