CNC
Analizado por ACCEResumen
Tesis ACCE
Centene runs Medicaid managed care across 29 states, wrapping government health programs into capitated contracts where the margin lives in medical cost management, not premium pricing power. The company processes roughly $145B in annual revenue through this model, which creates a durable float-like dynamic - cash collected before claims paid - that funds operations at scale. The near-term story hinges on Medicaid redetermination stabilization: post-COVID membership purges hit enrollment hard through 2023-2024, but the remaining book skews toward stickier, higher-acuity members, and state contract re-procurements in 2025 give Centene a chance to reprice risk more accurately. The negative ROE is the obvious red flag and traces directly to goodwill impairments and the drawn-out exit from the Magellan behavioral health acquisition - not core underwriting deterioration, which matters for how you read the balance sheet damage. At 13x forward earnings with the stock down roughly 40% from its 2022 highs, you're buying a Medicaid-dominant franchise at a discount that only makes sense if you believe management can push the medical loss ratio back toward the 88-89% range they've guided - the operational leverage on even 100 basis points of MLR improvement at this revenue base is material.
- graveACCE score collapseScore dropped 36 points in 90 days, from 100 to 64, signaling rapid deterioration in fundamental quality assessment.
- altoNegative ROE and net marginROE of -26.0% and net margin of -3.6% indicate the company is currently destroying shareholder value despite positive operating margin of 5.1%.
- moderadoQuality score extremely lowACCE Quality sub-score of 27/100 flags serious concerns about earnings quality or balance sheet integrity despite strong Momentum score.
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Precio
Valoración
INVESTORSeis modelos independientes convergen en un único valor razonable ponderado por la confianza, con metodología completa y supuestos editables.
- +Los seis modelos: DCF, comparables por PER y VE/EBITDA, Graham, descuento de dividendos y beneficio residual
- +Bandas de escenarios, tornado de sensibilidad y el rango de valoración histórica de 5 años
- +Simulador DCF editable con escenarios guardados
Calidad
INVESTORLa calidad al completo: desglose de la convicción, calidad de los beneficios, historial de puntuaciones y rentabilidades simuladas (backtest).
- +Desglose de la puntuación de convicción y nota de calidad de los beneficios
- +Puntuaciones de los componentes crecimiento / valor / calidad / momentum
- +Historial de puntuaciones de 90 días y backtests por umbral de puntuación
Analistas
Consenso de Wall Street
La visión completa de los analistas: la distribución de precios objetivo frente al precio actual, las estimaciones de consenso futuras y cómo se comparan con los modelos propios de ACCE.
- +Precio objetivo bajo / medio / alto frente al precio actual, con potencial implícito
- +Consenso a futuro de ingresos y BPA por ejercicio fiscal
- +Los modelos de valor razonable de ACCE frente al consenso del mercado
Smart money
PROSigue a las instituciones: variaciones de posiciones 13F, operaciones de directivos y registros 13D activistas.
- +Variaciones trimestrales de las posiciones institucionales
- +Operaciones recientes de directivos en el mercado
- +Registros 13D activistas activos y principales tenedores
Comparar
Posición frente a los comparables
Comparables algorítmicos (6)
| Ticker | Empresa | Cap. | P/E | ROE | D/E | Rent. div. | Calidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUM | Humana Inc. Common Stock | 45.460 M$ | 35.8 | 6,9 % | 0.70 | 0,9 % | - | Comparar |
| CI | The Cigna Group Common Stock | 72.526 M$ | 11.4 | 16,8 % | 0.75 | 2,2 % | - | Comparar |
| ELV | Elevance Health Inc. Common Stock | 88.767 M$ | 18.1 | 11,1 % | 0.73 | 1,7 % | - | Comparar |
| MOH | Molina Healthcare Inc Common Stock | 10.325 M$ | 1236.3 | -0,2 % | 0.93 | 0,0 % | - | Comparar |
| OSCR | Oscar Health Inc. Class A Common Stock | 9658 M$ | 24.1 | 34,3 % | 0.44 | 0,0 % | - | Comparar |
| CVS | CVS Health Corporation Common Stock | 112.038 M$ | 23.1 | 6,2 % | 0.86 | 3,0 % | - | Comparar |
Comparativa sectorial
Posición de CNC frente a sus comparables del sector en cada métrica.
Noticias e historial
Comunicados que mencionan a esta empresa
- PR Newswire•9 sept 2026Fill the Gap: More Affordable Homes on the Way for Stanislaus County Residents thanks to Health Net's $2 Million Investment
- PR Newswire•5 ago 2026Superior HealthPlan and Centene Foundation Make $350,000 Investment to Help with Flood Relief in Texas
- PR Newswire•12 may 2026Coordinated Care and Seattle Seahawks Host Youth Mental Health Summit
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Rendimiento reciente
Registros SEC
Cobertura reciente del blog de ACCE
- $CNC Earnings: EPS Jumps 16.2% in Quarter Reported April 28Centene $CNC posted EPS of $3.37 vs $2.90 a year ago, a 16.2% gain. Revenue grew 5.1% YoY. ACCE score sits at 64 with Momentum at 97/100.2026-07-28
- $CNC ACCE Score Jumps 10 Points to 63 - What's Driving ItCentene's ACCE composite score rose from 53 to 63. Here's what the subscore breakdown reveals about $CNC's momentum, value, and quality picture.2026-07-03