BABA, BSX, EVTC, KBR: Open Picks Reviewed September 2026

The ACCE open pick list has grown to ten names. Most are sitting on paper losses or modest gains, which makes this a good moment to go through the four that have the most to say right now: Alibaba (BABA), Boston Scientific (BSX), Evertec (EVTC), and KBR. One has already closed at a loss. The other three are open, and the data has shifted enough to warrant a fresh look.

BABA: The Closed Loss, and What It Tells You

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) closed at a loss of 9.9%. The thesis was straightforward: a cloud unit compounding at 38% inside a company the market was pricing at 14.3x forward earnings. That forward multiple has since compressed further to 12.2x, and the stock sits at $113.24 with a trailing P/E of 25.6, a gap that reflects how badly the most recent earnings quarter landed.

The numbers are stark. Year-over-year earnings fell 79.4%, and BABA missed its most recent quarter by 0.4%. The six-model fair value sits at $175.68, implying 55.1% upside from current prices, and the analyst consensus target is $185.94. The quality score is 59 out of 100, net margin is 7.0%, and FCF yield is negative 18.0%.

The loss was frustrating but not irrational. The cloud thesis remains intact structurally. What broke the trade was the pace of earnings deterioration in the core commerce business, which overwhelmed the cloud growth story in the near term. The momentum score of 25 out of 100 tells you the market has not stopped selling. Closing the position was the right call given that signal.

BSX: A 56% Derating With the Fundamentals Intact

Boston Scientific (BSX) is one of the more compelling setups on the open list. The stock is at $43.34, down 55.9% over the past year, yet the underlying business has not deteriorated in any meaningful way.

Revenue grew 7.5% year over year. Earnings grew 15.1%. Net margin is 17.5%, ROE is 15.3%, and FCF yield is 5.8%. The quality score is 79 out of 100. The six-model fair value is $52.77, which is 21.8% above the current price, and the analyst consensus target is $62.00.

The forward P/E is 12.7x against a trailing of 17.5x, meaning the street expects earnings to accelerate from here. The pick thesis noted that BSX beat its own Q2 guidance and was trading at roughly 14.7x forward earnings after the derating. That multiple has compressed a little further since. The momentum score of 17 out of 100 is the one genuine concern: there is no sign yet that the selling has exhausted itself. But the business quality is real, and a 21.8% gap to fair value on a company growing earnings at 15% is not a position to abandon.

EVTC: The Buyback Math Is Getting Harder to Ignore

Evertec (EVTC) is a Puerto Rico-based payments processor that beat revenue estimates by 4.8% in its most recent quarter, raised full-year guidance, and expanded its buyback to 7.9% of market cap. The stock is at $27.65.

The forward P/E is 6.3x. The six-model fair value is $50.81, a gap of 83.8% to the current price. The analyst target is $35.60. Revenue grew 19.7% year over year. FCF yield is 8.2%. ROE is 14.8%.

The trailing P/E of 18.0x versus the forward of 6.3x reflects a large one-time earnings drag in the prior period; the business itself is generating cash and growing. The value score is 87 out of 100. The quality score is 62. Momentum is 31, which is weak, but the buyback at 7.9% of market cap is a meaningful offset: management is retiring shares at a pace that will matter to per-share metrics within 12 to 18 months.

The one-year return is negative 18.3%, and the stock has not found a floor yet. But the combination of a beat, a raised guide, and an expanded buyback at 6.3x forward earnings is an unusual set of facts. The thesis is intact.

KBR: The Separation Catalyst Is 20 Weeks Out

KBR (KBR) is the most structurally interesting open pick. The stock is at $35.54, down 28.0% over the past year, and the pick thesis centers on a tax-free separation expected roughly 20 weeks from now.

The forward P/E is 8.7x. The six-model fair value is $91.87, which implies 158.5% upside from the current price. That is the widest gap on the entire open list. The analyst target is $45.71. Revenue grew 1.6% year over year, earnings grew 33.1%, and the trailing P/E is 10.7x.

The quality metrics are mixed but not alarming. ROE is 27.5%, which is strong. Net margin is 5.5%, which is thin but typical for a government services and engineering contractor. FCF yield is 10.8%. The value score is 100 out of 100.

The separation is the catalyst. Spin-off situations tend to create forced selling from index funds and institutional holders who cannot hold the new entity, and that selling often compresses the price of the parent in the weeks before the event. KBR has already absorbed a 28% decline. The 158.5% gap to the six-model fair value is wide enough to suggest the market is pricing in a lot of uncertainty about the post-separation structure. If the separation executes cleanly, the re-rating case is straightforward.

The Broader Picture

Looking across the four names: BABA closed at a loss and the decision to exit was defensible given the momentum deterioration. BSX, EVTC, and KBR are all open with varying degrees of near-term price pressure but fundamentals that have not broken.

The common thread is that all three open picks carry low forward multiples, 6.3x to 12.7x, against businesses generating real cash flow. The momentum scores are uniformly weak, which means the market has not yet agreed with the thesis on any of them. That is the nature of value-oriented picks: the gap between price and fair value exists precisely because the near-term price action is discouraging.

The KBR separation timeline is the most concrete near-term catalyst. The EVTC buyback is the most mechanical support. BSX's earnings growth trajectory is the most straightforward fundamental case. All three are worth holding through the current weakness, with the separation date for KBR serving as the clearest event to watch between now and early 2027.